Region 01 · 12 states
Midwest and Plains
ND · SD · NE · KS · IA · MN · WI · MI · OH · IN · IL · MO
39.34% of new registrations in North Dakota are pickups. The national rate is 19.3%.
- What moves
- All twelve states clear the 83.5% US light-truck share. Pickup share is the differentiator, not SUV share: North Dakota 39.34%, South Dakota 34.68%, Iowa 29.53%, Missouri 28.65%. Two states run under the national pickup average, Illinois at 13.93% and Ohio at 17.80%.
- Powertrain
- Every state in the region falls below the 7.9% US battery-electric share, and hybrid outruns battery-electric three to seven times over in all twelve. North Dakota: 10.03% hybrid against 1.40% electric.
- Competitive density
- Roughly 15,979 people per franchised rooftop against about 20,117 nationally. The region holds 25.7% of US franchised rooftops on 20.4% of the population.
- Calendar overlay
- The national shape plus harvest cash. Iowa corn was 97% harvested and soybeans 99% by the week ending 16 November 2025, and grain sales convert to household cash in the weeks immediately after.
- Media
- Only 49% of rural Americans say local television coverage of their area is available, against 64% suburban and 70% urban. The rooftop’s own name and town has to do work that a DMA buy will not do for it.
What fails here. Electric-led brand campaigns against a 1.4% to 3.7% addressable segment. Flat always-on budgets that spend January like March. Treating Chicago and Fargo as one market.
S&P Global Mobility via Alliance for Automotive Innovation, full year 2025. NADA 2025 Annual Financial Profile with Census Vintage 2025 population, ratio calculated. USDA NASS, week ending 16 November 2025. Pew Research Center, May 2024.
Region 02 · 5 states
Texas and Southwest
TX · OK · NM · AZ · NV
69% of Texas new-car buyers pay cash or arrange their own financing, 23 points higher than California.
- What moves
- New Mexico runs 29.70% pickup share and Texas 25.96% against a US 19.3%. Arizona sits at 21.68%. Nevada breaks the pattern and skews utility at 58.27%.
- The money
- Dallas-Fort Worth averages $808 a month and Houston $840, the two highest payments among the top ten markets. Texas dealers still earn $2,200 in F&I per vehicle, $400 more than California.
- Powertrain
- Three different markets inside one region. Nevada is 14.35% battery-electric, second only to California. Oklahoma is 0.92%, roughly one-eighth the national rate. Hybrid outsells electric better than two to one in Texas and Arizona.
- Calendar overlay
- The national shape plus desert summer collapse. Phoenix averages 80 days at or above 100F in a single June-to-August season and Las Vegas 67, against three in Houston. The lot walk is not happening at three in the afternoon in July.
- Media
- New Mexico is 49.4% Hispanic and Texas 40.9%, against a US 20.5%. Sixty-two percent of Hispanic adults use Instagram against 45% of White adults, and streaming is 55.8% of total television time among Hispanic audiences against 46% for the general population.
What fails here. Lease-payment-led advertising against a cash-and-outside-financing majority. ZIP targeting inherited from the dealer’s sold log, on the exurban rim where the growth actually is. One electric playbook across a region running 0.92% to 14.35%.
S&P Global Mobility via Alliance for Automotive Innovation, full year 2025. J.D. Power, June 2026. S&P Global Mobility, January to June 2025. NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 normals. Census QuickFacts, Vintage 2025. Pew Research Center, fielded February to June 2025. Nielsen, September 2025.
Region 03 · 10 states
Southeast and Gulf
FL · GA · AL · MS · LA · TN · SC · NC · AR · KY
347,000 vehicles were flood-damaged in the 2024 hurricane season alone.
- What moves
- Two markets, not one. The Gulf and Delta tier runs Arkansas 29.35% pickup, Louisiana 28.12%, Mississippi 26.93%, Alabama 25.50%. Florida inverts it: 15.20% pickup, four points under the national average, and the only state in the region above the US car share at 20.27%.
- Powertrain
- Florida is the second-largest electric market in the country by registered stock at 450,400 vehicles. On new registrations only Florida beats the national rate, at 8.58%, while Mississippi sits at 1.88%. That is a 4.6x spread inside one region.
- Competitive density
- Florida at roughly 24,619 and Georgia at 22,927 people per rooftop are under-dealered. Arkansas at 14,762 and Louisiana at 15,925 are over-dealered. The national figure is about 20,100. Same budget, very different optimal geo-fence.
- Calendar overlay
- The Atlantic season runs 1 June to 30 November and peaks on 10 September, which lands squarely in the national sales trough. A landfall year is a replacement market, not a soft month.
- Migration
- The in-migration story has flipped. North Carolina ranked first nationally at 84,064 net domestic in-migration and South Carolina third at 66,622, while Florida fell to 22,517 from 183,646 in 2023.
What fails here. A single Southeast campaign, when the internal spreads run 15.20% to 29.35% on pickups and 1.88% to 8.58% on electric. Electric-forward creative in Mississippi. Cutting spend in September and October in a landfall year.
S&P Global Mobility via Alliance for Automotive Innovation, full year 2025. CARFAX, October 2024. US Department of Energy Alternative Fuels Data Center, 2025. NADA 2025 with Census Vintage 2025 population, ratio calculated. NOAA National Hurricane Center. Census Vintage 2025.
Region 04 · 14 states
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
ME · NH · VT · MA · RI · CT · NY · NJ · PA · MD · DE · VA · WV · DC
9.44% is New Jersey’s pickup share. North Dakota buys them at 39.34%, four
times over.
- What moves
- The highest crossover share in the country: New York 70.18%, New Jersey 68.51%, Massachusetts 67.17% against a US 59.6%. The fleet also turns faster here, with average vehicle age at Vermont 10.0, New York 10.4, Massachusetts 10.5 and New Jersey 10.8 years against a US 12.2.
- Shopping radius
- New York State has the longest commute in the nation at 32.6 minutes, with Maryland, New Jersey and DC all above 30. The region is also the transit outlier: 14.3% of Northeast workers commute by public transportation against 5.0% nationally.
- Powertrain
- Not uniformly an electric region. DC at 14.70% and New Jersey at 9.74% clear the national 7.9%, while Pennsylvania 4.54%, New Hampshire 3.87%, Maine 3.04% and West Virginia 1.45% fall well under it.
- Competitive density
- About 18,377 people per rooftop, and 24.6% of all US franchised dealerships on roughly 22.4% of the population. New Jersey alone holds 472 rooftops at 1,263 people per square mile. A same-brand competitor is routinely inside a 20-minute drive.
- Calendar overlay
- The snowfall gradient runs ten to one inside a single sales territory: Buffalo 95.4 inches, Hartford 51.7, New York City 29.8, Washington 13.7, Richmond 8.8. Winter messaging has to be bought in October, ahead of first accumulation.
What fails here. Truck-led creative against a 9.44% to 13.58% pickup market. Trade-in-led creative where 35% of DC and 29% of New York households own no vehicle at all. Equity-mining cadence calibrated to a national 12.2-year parc, which fires a full year late against a 10.0 to 10.8-year regional fleet.
S&P Global Mobility via Alliance for Automotive Innovation, full year 2025. Alliance registrations as of 31 December 2024 for average vehicle age. Census QuickFacts, ACS 2020-2024. Census public transportation release. NADA 2025 with Census Vintage 2025 population, ratio calculated. NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 normals.
Region 05 · 8 states
West and Mountain
CA · OR · WA · ID · MT · WY · UT · CO
22.1% hybrid share in California now exceeds 15.9% zero-emission share, the first crossover on record.
- What moves
- The coastal and interior split is the defining fact. Light-truck share runs California 74.2% against Colorado 91.2% and Washington 86.5%. California is the only state in the region where passenger cars are still a quarter of the market. Import share: California 67.5%, Washington 68.1%, Colorado 63.7%.
- Powertrain
- Q1 2026 electric share against a national 6.3%: California 17.51%, Washington 15.17%, Oregon 9.37%, Colorado 8.08%, Utah 6.14%, Idaho 4.59%, Montana 3.42%, Wyoming 1.84%. A 9.5x spread inside one region. Every market here that was an electric market in 2025 is a hybrid market in 2026.
- Competitive density
- California runs about 29,509 people per rooftop against Montana’s 12,232. A California dealer serves 2.4 times the population base of a Montana dealer. Montana and Wyoming are not open fields; they are the most over-dealered states in the region.
- Calendar overlay
- Two fire windows, not one. Southern California’s risk window is January. The interior’s is July through early September. The eight states burned 1,922,516 acres in 2025, 37.5% of all US acres burned.
- Media
- Six of eight states beat the 91.0% US household broadband rate, including Montana and Wyoming at 89.4%. This is not a connectivity problem even in its emptiest states. Los Angeles absorbed $2,415,326,377 in local ad spend in 2024, more than Denver, Seattle, San Diego, Portland, Salt Lake and Sacramento combined.
What fails here. A single West campaign across a 9.5x electric spread and a 15-point light-truck spread. Electric-forward messaging in 2026, which fails worst where it worked best. Truck-capability creative in coastal California. Long-commute pain messaging in the mountain states, where commutes run seven to ten minutes shorter than California’s.
California New Car Dealers Association / Auto Outlook, first half 2026. Colorado Auto Outlook Q1 2026. WSADA Auto Outlook Q1 2026. Alliance for Automotive Innovation, Get Connected Q1 2026. NADA 2025 with Census Vintage 2025 population, ratio calculated. National Interagency Fire Center 2025 annual report, regional total calculated. Census QuickFacts. OAAA 2024 local ad spend by DMA.